GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-48
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 59.0, "implied_p": 0.59} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-48", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.10889999999999997, "prob_error": 0.32999999999999996, "calibration_bin": 6} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 70000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 59.00 cents (implied probability 0.590). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.67** Reasoning: 70k is a low bar relative to trend payroll growth (~100–150k/month in the cooling 2025–26 labor market), and months below 70k are rare outside recessions or one-off disruptions. The market's 0.59 is a useful anchor but seems to over-weight downside/recession risk; I'd shade slightly above it to ~0.65–0.70. If forced to a point estimate, 0.67, and I'd buy YES at 59¢.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.67,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.67**\n\nReasoning: 70k is a low bar relative to trend payroll growth (~100\u2013150k/month in the cooling 2025\u201326 labor market), and months below 70k are rare outside recessions or one-off disruptions. The market's 0.59 is a useful anchor but seems to over-weight downside/recession risk",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 20.423931121826172
}