GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-48

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-48", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.4489000000000001, "prob_error": 0.67, "calibration_bin": 6}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Shane Lowry have an eagle in the 4th Round?". The market currently prices YES at 29.00 cents (implied probability 0.290). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **0.67**

Reasoning: 70k is a low bar relative to trend payroll growth (~100–150k/month in the cooling 2025–26 labor market), and months below 70k are rare outside recessions or one-off disruptions. The market's 0.59 is a useful anchor but seems to over-weight downside/recession risk; I'd shade slightly above it to ~0.65–0.70. If forced to a point estimate, 0.67, and I'd buy YES at 59¢.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.67,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **0.67**\n\nReasoning: 70k is a low bar relative to trend payroll growth (~100\u2013150k/month in the cooling 2025\u201326 labor market), and months below 70k are rare outside recessions or one-off disruptions. The market's 0.59 is a useful anchor but seems to over-weight downside/recession risk",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 20.423931121826172
}