GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-46
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 56.0, "implied_p": 0.56} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-46", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 56.00 cents (implied probability 0.560). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I have no edge or private information here — a 15-minute ETH move is effectively random noise. Without a live price feed, I can't do better than the market. So my probability is ~0.56, matching the market price.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.56,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I have no edge or private information here \u2014 a 15-minute ETH move is effectively random noise. Without a live price feed, I can't do better than the market. So my probability is ~0.56, matching the market price.",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 8.801466941833496
}