GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-45
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 56.0, "implied_p": 0.56} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-45", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.28090000000000004, "prob_error": 0.53, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "BNB price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 56.00 cents (implied probability 0.560). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**~0.53** A 15-minute crypto move is close to a random walk; there's no reliable short-term edge without directional info. The 56¢ midpoint typically includes a bid-ask markup, so fair value is a bit below it. I'd shade to ~0.53 rather than the full 0.56.
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.53,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**~0.53**\n\nA 15-minute crypto move is close to a random walk; there's no reliable short-term edge without directional info. The 56\u00a2 midpoint typically includes a bid-ask markup, so fair value is a bit below it. I'd shade to ~0.53 rather than the full 0.56.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.405412912368774
}