GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-45

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 20.0, "implied_p": 0.2}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-45", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.28090000000000004, "prob_error": 0.53, "calibration_bin": 5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 6594.9999 on Apr 1, 2026 at 2pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 20.00 cents (implied probability 0.200). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

**~0.53**

A 15-minute crypto move is close to a random walk; there's no reliable short-term edge without directional info. The 56¢ midpoint typically includes a bid-ask markup, so fair value is a bit below it. I'd shade to ~0.53 rather than the full 0.56.

Parsed

{
 "action": "walk",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.53,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**~0.53**\n\nA 15-minute crypto move is close to a random walk; there's no reliable short-term edge without directional info. The 56\u00a2 midpoint typically includes a bid-ask markup, so fair value is a bit below it. I'd shade to ~0.53 rather than the full 0.56.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 14.405412912368774
}