GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-43
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 43.0, "implied_p": 0.43} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-43", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.18489999999999998, "prob_error": 0.43, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 26, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 43.00 cents (implied probability 0.430). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.43 — I have no information advantage over the market and the exact price range isn't specified, so the 43¢ quote is my best estimate. (Note: Mar 26, 2026 is already in the past relative to today, so if this is a real market it would already be resolved.)
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.43,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.43 \u2014 I have no information advantage over the market and the exact price range isn't specified, so the 43\u00a2 quote is my best estimate. (Note: Mar 26, 2026 is already in the past relative to today, so if this is a real market it would already be resolved.)",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.914811849594116
}