GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-41
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 20.0, "implied_p": 0.2} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-41", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will 2026 Masters Tournament winner say during 2026 Masters Champion’s Press Conference?". The market currently prices YES at 20.00 cents (implied probability 0.200). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
That market is unresolvable as stated: the YES condition is "the winner says [something specific]," but the question never tells me what specific statement the market is tracking. Without knowing the quote, there's no well-defined event to assign a probability to — any number from 0 to 1 is ungrounded. So my answer: **undefined** — I'd refuse to trade rather than price an ill-defined contract.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "That market is unresolvable as stated: the YES condition is \"the winner says [something specific],\" but the question never tells me what specific statement the market is tracking. Without knowing the quote, there's no well-defined event to assign a probability to \u2014 any number from 0 to 1 is unground",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.394450902938843
}