GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-40
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-40", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.48999999999999994, "prob_error": 0.7, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 100000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 29.00 cents (implied probability 0.290). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.30** (30%). Reasoning: The market's 29¢ is a strong anchor since NFP prints are heavily traded and the market is broadly efficient on them. Base rates support a mild adjustment toward the market's bearish tilt rather than away — historically, months with sub-100K payrolls are not rare during slowdowns (roughly 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 months), and 100K sits near the low end of the 2025–26 trend range. With no private information suggesting the print will be better than the market's implied view, I stay essentially at the market price.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.30** (30%).\n\nReasoning: The market's 29\u00a2 is a strong anchor since NFP prints are heavily traded and the market is broadly efficient on them. Base rates support a mild adjustment toward the market's bearish tilt rather than away \u2014 historically, months with sub-100K payrolls are n",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.244627952575684
}