GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-4
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-4", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0001, "prob_error": 0.01, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Eastern Conference Finals Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.010** (1%). I have no private information that beats the market here — the 1¢ price already reflects near-certain resolution NO, and a well-functioning market's implied probability is the strongest prior. Without a concrete edge, I anchor to it rather than override it.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.010** (1%).\n\nI have no private information that beats the market here \u2014 the 1\u00a2 price already reflects near-certain resolution NO, and a well-functioning market's implied probability is the strongest prior. Without a concrete edge, I anchor to it rather than override it.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 23.4478919506073
}