GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-39

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectBig-Pickle
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 33.0, "implied_p": 0.33}
score{"id": "market-pricing-39", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.010000000000000002, "prob_error": 0.1, "calibration_bin": 1}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 5?". The market currently prices YES at 33.00 cents (implied probability 0.330). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **~10%** (say 8–12%).

Rationale: Bhatia is a strong but not elite player — his bookmaker Masters win odds typically sit around 50/1–80/1, and a top-5 finish runs roughly 6–8x the win price, landing near 10%. He has no major top-5s and Majors fields are stacked. The market's 33 cents looks rich to me; if I could transact, NO would be the value side.

Caveat: my estimate is based on general form/odds knowledge, not a rigorous model, so I wouldn't treat it as a confident edge.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.1,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **~10%** (say 8\u201312%).\n\nRationale: Bhatia is a strong but not elite player \u2014 his bookmaker Masters win odds typically sit around 50/1\u201380/1, and a top-5 finish runs roughly 6\u20138x the win price, landing near 10%. He has no major top-5s and Majors fields are stacked. The market's 33 cents",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 22.316474199295044
}