GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-38
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 35.0, "implied_p": 0.35} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-38", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.12249999999999998, "prob_error": 0.35, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 24, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 35.00 cents (implied probability 0.350). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability that YES resolves: **0.35** (35%). I don't have the specific BTC price range for Mar 24, 2026 (it's omitted from the question), so I anchor on the market's implied probability of 0.350 — prediction markets are generally well-calibrated on crypto price ranges — and find no strong reason to deviate given no range details.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.35,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability that YES resolves: **0.35** (35%).\n\nI don't have the specific BTC price range for Mar 24, 2026 (it's omitted from the question), so I anchor on the market's implied probability of 0.350 \u2014 prediction markets are generally well-calibrated on crypto price ranges \u2014 and find no strong reas",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.009844064712524
}