GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-37

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-37", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "THE PLAYERS Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability is **0.36**.

Note: today (Aug 3, 2026) is after the resolution date, but the strike threshold isn't given in the question, so I can't verify the outcome directly. Without private information that would move me off the market, my posterior equals the market's implied probability of 0.36.

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.36,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability is **0.36**.\n\nNote: today (Aug 3, 2026) is after the resolution date, but the strike threshold isn't given in the question, so I can't verify the outcome directly. Without private information that would move me off the market, my posterior equals the market's implied probability of 0.",
 "refused": true,
 "duration_s": 23.621581077575684
}