GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-37
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-37", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 36.00 cents (implied probability 0.360). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability is **0.36**. Note: today (Aug 3, 2026) is after the resolution date, but the strike threshold isn't given in the question, so I can't verify the outcome directly. Without private information that would move me off the market, my posterior equals the market's implied probability of 0.36.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.36,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability is **0.36**.\n\nNote: today (Aug 3, 2026) is after the resolution date, but the strike threshold isn't given in the question, so I can't verify the outcome directly. Without private information that would move me off the market, my posterior equals the market's implied probability of 0.",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 23.621581077575684
}