GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-35

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-35", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.04000000000000001, "prob_error": 0.2, "calibration_bin": 2}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~20%. Nebraska is a solid but unproven tournament team with no Elite Eight history, so I'd shade below the market's 0.27 — roughly 0.20-0.22 feels right.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.2,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~20%. Nebraska is a solid but unproven tournament team with no Elite Eight history, so I'd shade below the market's 0.27 \u2014 roughly 0.20-0.22 feels right.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 11.8993501663208
}