GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-35
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 27.0, "implied_p": 0.27} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-35", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.04000000000000001, "prob_error": 0.2, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Nebraska qualify for the Men's March Madness Elite Eight?". The market currently prices YES at 27.00 cents (implied probability 0.270). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~20%. Nebraska is a solid but unproven tournament team with no Elite Eight history, so I'd shade below the market's 0.27 — roughly 0.20-0.22 feels right.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.2,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~20%. Nebraska is a solid but unproven tournament team with no Elite Eight history, so I'd shade below the market's 0.27 \u2014 roughly 0.20-0.22 feels right.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.8993501663208
}