GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-34
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-34", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.25, "prob_error": 0.5, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "SOL price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 36.00 cents (implied probability 0.360). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~50%. SOL is trading flat/choppy around $72–75 with no strong momentum, and 15-minute directional moves in crypto are essentially a coin flip. That's well above the market's 36¢, so if this is a bet, YES looks underpriced to me.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.5,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~50%. SOL is trading flat/choppy around $72\u201375 with no strong momentum, and 15-minute directional moves in crypto are essentially a coin flip. That's well above the market's 36\u00a2, so if this is a bet, YES looks underpriced to me.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.318488121032715
}