GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-3
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-3", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0, "prob_error": 0.0, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Mark Byington be the next permanent head coach of North Carolina men's college basketball?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability of YES: ~0% (≈0.001, effectively zero).** Reasoning: - Hubert Davis was fired on 3/24/26, opening the job (WRAL, AP). - Mark Byington was a rumored candidate, but signed a long-term contract extension with Vanderbilt on 3/28/26 and publicly called it "home." - UNC announced **Michael Malone** as its next permanent head coach on 4/7/26 (6-yr, $50M). The question has effectively already resolved NO — Byington is not UNC's coach and Malone is. At 1.0¢ the market is roughly fair to slightly rich for YES; no edge buying YES at that price.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.0,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability of YES: ~0% (\u22480.001, effectively zero).**\n\nReasoning:\n- Hubert Davis was fired on 3/24/26, opening the job (WRAL, AP).\n- Mark Byington was a rumored candidate, but signed a long-term contract extension with Vanderbilt on 3/28/26 and publicly called it \"home.\"\n- UNC announced **Micha",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 34.044076681137085
}