GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-3

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 0.1, "implied_p": 0.001}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-3", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0, "prob_error": 0.0, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "DOGE price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 0.10 cents (implied probability 0.001). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

**My probability of YES: ~0% (≈0.001, effectively zero).**

Reasoning:
- Hubert Davis was fired on 3/24/26, opening the job (WRAL, AP).
- Mark Byington was a rumored candidate, but signed a long-term contract extension with Vanderbilt on 3/28/26 and publicly called it "home."
- UNC announced **Michael Malone** as its next permanent head coach on 4/7/26 (6-yr, $50M).

The question has effectively already resolved NO — Byington is not UNC's coach and Malone is. At 1.0¢ the market is roughly fair to slightly rich for YES; no edge buying YES at that price.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.0,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**My probability of YES: ~0% (\u22480.001, effectively zero).**\n\nReasoning:\n- Hubert Davis was fired on 3/24/26, opening the job (WRAL, AP).\n- Mark Byington was a rumored candidate, but signed a long-term contract extension with Vanderbilt on 3/28/26 and publicly called it \"home.\"\n- UNC announced **Micha",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 34.044076681137085
}