GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-29
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-29", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0729, "prob_error": 0.27, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Luis Arraez: 1+ home runs?". The market currently prices YES at 6.00 cents (implied probability 0.060). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I have no information beyond the market price, so I'd defer to the market's efficiency: my probability is **0.27** (27%).
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.27,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I have no information beyond the market price, so I'd defer to the market's efficiency: my probability is **0.27** (27%).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 18.41231107711792
}