GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-29
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 27.0, "implied_p": 0.27} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-29", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0729, "prob_error": 0.27, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "Top USA Song on Spotify on Mar 13, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 27.00 cents (implied probability 0.270). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I have no information beyond the market price, so I'd defer to the market's efficiency: my probability is **0.27** (27%).
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.27,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I have no information beyond the market price, so I'd defer to the market's efficiency: my probability is **0.27** (27%).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 18.41231107711792
}