GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-28
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-28", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0529, "prob_error": 0.23, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 7034.9999 on Apr 16, 2026 at 3pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.22–0.23 (22–23%)**. Reasoning: I have no private information about the specific teams, so I anchor near the market's implied probability of 0.220. Kill totals in esports are highly volatile, so I'd only move meaningfully off the market with strong context (e.g., known defensive playstyles, slow pace, recent roster/strategy data). Lacking that, 22–23% is my best estimate, essentially deferring to the efficient price.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.23,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.22\u20130.23 (22\u201323%)**.\n\nReasoning: I have no private information about the specific teams, so I anchor near the market's implied probability of 0.220. Kill totals in esports are highly volatile, so I'd only move meaningfully off the market with strong context (e.g., known defensive ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.550617933273315
}