GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-27
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 7.0, "implied_p": 0.07} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-27", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.004900000000000001, "prob_error": 0.07, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 7, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 7.00 cents (implied probability 0.070). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: ~0.07 (7%). With no private information beyond the market's, the market price is my best estimate of the true probability. I'd defer to the 7 cents, maybe nudging slightly to 0.065–0.075 given the question's threshold is unspecified.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.07,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: ~0.07 (7%).\n\nWith no private information beyond the market's, the market price is my best estimate of the true probability. I'd defer to the 7 cents, maybe nudging slightly to 0.065\u20130.075 given the question's threshold is unspecified.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.853132963180542
}