GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-27

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 14.0, "implied_p": 0.14}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-27", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.004900000000000001, "prob_error": 0.07, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "Ethereum price at Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 14.00 cents (implied probability 0.140). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: ~0.07 (7%).

With no private information beyond the market's, the market price is my best estimate of the true probability. I'd defer to the 7 cents, maybe nudging slightly to 0.065–0.075 given the question's threshold is unspecified.

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.07,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: ~0.07 (7%).\n\nWith no private information beyond the market's, the market price is my best estimate of the true probability. I'd defer to the 7 cents, maybe nudging slightly to 0.065\u20130.075 given the question's threshold is unspecified.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 12.853132963180542
}