GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-26

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectBig-Pickle
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 9.0, "implied_p": 0.09}
score{"id": "market-pricing-26", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.010000000000000002, "prob_error": 0.1, "calibration_bin": 1}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Finance): "EWY (EWY) Up or Down on April 15?". The market currently prices YES at 9.00 cents (implied probability 0.090). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

{
  "probability": 0.10,
  "confidence": 0.85,
  "reasoning": "The market prices YES at 9 cents; with no private information, I treat the efficient market price as the best estimate, nudged to ~10% for the historical base rate of up-days in equity ETFs."
}

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": 0.85,
 "probability": 0.1,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "The market prices YES at 9 cents; with no private information, I treat the efficient market price as the best estimate, nudged to ~10% for the historical base rate of up-days in equity ETFs.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 60.92844104766846
}