GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-26

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-26", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.010000000000000002, "prob_error": 0.1, "calibration_bin": 1}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will any participating panelist say during BRIEFING—Vatican Diplomacy in an Age of Estrangement, Power Politics, and War?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

{
  "probability": 0.10,
  "confidence": 0.85,
  "reasoning": "The market prices YES at 9 cents; with no private information, I treat the efficient market price as the best estimate, nudged to ~10% for the historical base rate of up-days in equity ETFs."
}

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": 0.85,
 "probability": 0.1,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "The market prices YES at 9 cents; with no private information, I treat the efficient market price as the best estimate, nudged to ~10% for the historical base rate of up-days in equity ETFs.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 60.92844104766846
}