GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-25

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
subject	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 6.0, "implied_p": 0.06}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-25", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0012250000000000002, "prob_error": 0.035, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Pete Hegseth say during Pentagon Press Briefing on April 7th?". The market currently prices YES at 6.00 cents (implied probability 0.060). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **0.035 (3.5%)**.

Reasoning: I have no privileged information, so the market price (6%) is my anchor. But vague resolution criteria ("what will X say") plus the well-documented favorite-longshot bias (longshots overpriced, typically resolving below implied odds) push it lower. Anchoring around 3–4%.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.035,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **0.035 (3.5%)**.\n\nReasoning: I have no privileged information, so the market price (6%) is my anchor. But vague resolution criteria (\"what will X say\") plus the well-documented favorite-longshot bias (longshots overpriced, typically resolving below implied odds) push it lower. Ancho",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 11.11780309677124
}