GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-25

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 11.0, "implied_p": 0.11}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-25", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0012250000000000002, "prob_error": 0.035, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Nick Martinez: 4+ strikeouts?". The market currently prices YES at 11.00 cents (implied probability 0.110). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **0.035 (3.5%)**.

Reasoning: I have no privileged information, so the market price (6%) is my anchor. But vague resolution criteria ("what will X say") plus the well-documented favorite-longshot bias (longshots overpriced, typically resolving below implied odds) push it lower. Anchoring around 3–4%.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.035,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **0.035 (3.5%)**.\n\nReasoning: I have no privileged information, so the market price (6%) is my anchor. But vague resolution criteria (\"what will X say\") plus the well-documented favorite-longshot bias (longshots overpriced, typically resolving below implied odds) push it lower. Ancho",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 11.11780309677124
}