GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-24

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectBig-Pickle
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05}
score{"id": "market-pricing-24", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 25, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

Without the specific price range being stated, my prior sits near the market's. My probability: **~5%** (matching the market's 5-cent price).

At that price there's no expected-value edge, so I'd make **no bet** — or only a tiny NO position if I believed the true probability were below 5%. If you share the exact range, I can refine the estimate.

Parsed

{
 "action": "no_bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.05,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "Without the specific price range being stated, my prior sits near the market's. My probability: **~5%** (matching the market's 5-cent price).\n\nAt that price there's no expected-value edge, so I'd make **no bet** \u2014 or only a tiny NO position if I believed the true probability were below 5%. If you sh",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 16.270138263702393
}