GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-22
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-22", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "XRP price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.050** (5%). I have no edge over the market here — 15-minute crypto moves are near-random noise, and the 5¢ price already reflects all available information. Without private signals, the market price is my best estimate.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.05,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.050** (5%).\n\nI have no edge over the market here \u2014 15-minute crypto moves are near-random noise, and the 5\u00a2 price already reflects all available information. Without private signals, the market price is my best estimate.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 7.530938148498535
}