GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-21
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 19.0, "implied_p": 0.19} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-21", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Apr 6, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 19.00 cents (implied probability 0.190). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.19, matching the market's implied probability. I can't update much without knowing the specific price range the contract resolves on, so the market consensus is my best estimate. (Note: with today being Aug 2026, this market has already resolved — if you give me the range I can check the actual outcome and re-calibrate.)
Parsed
{
"action": "check",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.19,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.19, matching the market's implied probability.\n\nI can't update much without knowing the specific price range the contract resolves on, so the market consensus is my best estimate. (Note: with today being Aug 2026, this market has already resolved \u2014 if you give me the range I can check the actual ",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 12.949038982391357
}