GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-20

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectBig-Pickle
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 19.0, "implied_p": 0.19}
score{"id": "market-pricing-20", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0484, "prob_error": 0.22, "calibration_bin": 2}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Lance McCullers: 6+ strikeouts?". The market currently prices YES at 19.00 cents (implied probability 0.190). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **~22%** that McCullers reaches 6+ strikeouts.

Reasoning: His profile (high K/9 ~9, but limited pitch counts/innings) makes 6+ a coin-flip-ish stretch requiring either 6+ innings or an outlier K game. That roughly tracks the market's 19%, with slight personal upward adjustment.

Given $1000 and only ~3pp of edge (22% vs 19%), expected value is thin: EV per share ≈ 0.22×$1 − $0.19 ≈ $0.03. Kelly would suggest a small stake, but I'd stay **no-bet / minimal (<$50)** given uncertainty about the specific matchup, since I lack game-specific data.

Parsed

{
 "action": "no_bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.22,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **~22%** that McCullers reaches 6+ strikeouts.\n\nReasoning: His profile (high K/9 ~9, but limited pitch counts/innings) makes 6+ a coin-flip-ish stretch requiring either 6+ innings or an outlier K game. That roughly tracks the market's 19%, with slight personal upward adjustment.\n\nGiv",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 14.5435471534729
}