GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-2
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.990025, "prob_error": 0.995, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 9, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~99.5% (Milwaukee is an 82-game NBA team that clears 40 wins almost every season; sub-40 seasons happen well under 1% of the time). This is a massive mispricing. Fair price for YES is ~$0.995, market says $0.01. Expected value per share = 0.995 − 0.01 = $0.985, a ~98.5x return on a near-certain event. Kelly on a 99-to-1 payoff at p≈0.995 says bet ~99% of bankroll; I'd round that down to ~$950–$990 on YES, keeping a small reserve for model risk.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.99,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.995,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~99.5% (Milwaukee is an 82-game NBA team that clears 40 wins almost every season; sub-40 seasons happen well under 1% of the time).\n\nThis is a massive mispricing. Fair price for YES is ~$0.995, market says $0.01. Expected value per share = 0.995 \u2212 0.01 = $0.985, a ~98.5x return on a near-certain eve",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.28272008895874
}