GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-19
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 12.0, "implied_p": 0.12} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-19", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.25, "prob_error": 0.5, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.30 by 11:59 PM ET on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 12.00 cents (implied probability 0.120). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.18. XRP traded around $1.44 in late March 2026 (down ~50% from Sept 2025), so a trimmed mean below $1.30 by Mar 31 required a ~10% drop in the last week. That's plausible for crypto but not likely. The market's 0.12 looks slightly cheap to me, so I'd shade up a bit.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.5,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.18.\n\nXRP traded around $1.44 in late March 2026 (down ~50% from Sept 2025), so a trimmed mean below $1.30 by Mar 31 required a ~10% drop in the last week. That's plausible for crypto but not likely. The market's 0.12 looks slightly cheap to me, so I'd shade up a bit.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 24.038560152053833
}