GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-18
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-18", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.25, "prob_error": 0.5, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "BTC price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.50** (50%). Without live tick data or momentum info, a 15-minute BTC move is effectively a coin flip — long-term drift is negligible over that horizon. I'd not anchor to the 5-cent market quote; that's likely a thin/stale book, not information.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.5,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.50** (50%).\n\nWithout live tick data or momentum info, a 15-minute BTC move is effectively a coin flip \u2014 long-term drift is negligible over that horizon. I'd not anchor to the 5-cent market quote; that's likely a thin/stale book, not information.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.631359100341797
}