GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-15
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-15", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Nico Hoerner: 1+ home runs?". The market currently prices YES at 5.00 cents (implied probability 0.050). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.045. Hoerner is a contact-first middle infielder (~5–7 HR/season over ~145 games, minus games missed to injury), so his per-game HR rate is around 4–5%, in line with the market's 5.0¢. I'd shade slightly below the market given his modest recent power output.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.05,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.045. Hoerner is a contact-first middle infielder (~5\u20137 HR/season over ~145 games, minus games missed to injury), so his per-game HR rate is around 4\u20135%, in line with the market's 5.0\u00a2. I'd shade slightly below the market given his modest recent power output.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.903241872787476
}