GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-13
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-13", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0225, "prob_error": 0.15, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Kentucky qualify for the Men's March Madness Elite Eight?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: ~15%** (buy YES at 1¢) Reasoning: This is the 2027 tournament (Santa Clara already lost in the 2026 first round to Kentucky in OT, so that market would have resolved NO). For 2026–27, Santa Clara returns a strong core (Hammond, Ensminger, Gavalyugov, Oboye, Darlan) under a proven coach in Sendek, Gonzaga leaves the WCC making the conference winnable, and the field expands to 76 teams. I'd estimate ~40% to make the field (at-large or WCC auto-bid) × ~40% to win the first-round game, which the market's 1.00¢ price badly underprices.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_play",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.15,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: ~15%** (buy YES at 1\u00a2)\n\nReasoning: This is the 2027 tournament (Santa Clara already lost in the 2026 first round to Kentucky in OT, so that market would have resolved NO). For 2026\u201327, Santa Clara returns a strong core (Hammond, Ensminger, Gavalyugov, Oboye, Darlan) under a proven ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 63.417587995529175
}