GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-10
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-10", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0225, "prob_error": 0.15, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will DN SOOPers Challengers win map 1 in the DN SOOPers Challengers vs. KT Rolster Challengers match?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.15 (15%). I have no specific info on these two squads, but a team in a live competitive match winning a given map is rarely a 1% proposition; the market price looks like stale/last-man-out pricing. My prior leans toward a low-but-not-extreme chance, so ~15% versus the market's 1%.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.15,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.15 (15%).\n\nI have no specific info on these two squads, but a team in a live competitive match winning a given map is rarely a 1% proposition; the market price looks like stale/last-man-out pricing. My prior leans toward a low-but-not-extreme chance, so ~15% versus the market's 1%.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.758537292480469
}