GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-10

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Big-Pickle
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-10", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0225, "prob_error": 0.15, "calibration_bin": 1}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Climate and Weather): "Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be 71-72° on Mar 27, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~0.15 (15%).

I have no specific info on these two squads, but a team in a live competitive match winning a given map is rarely a 1% proposition; the market price looks like stale/last-man-out pricing. My prior leans toward a low-but-not-extreme chance, so ~15% versus the market's 1%.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.15,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~0.15 (15%).\n\nI have no specific info on these two squads, but a team in a live competitive match winning a given map is rarely a 1% proposition; the market price looks like stale/last-man-out pricing. My prior leans toward a low-but-not-extreme chance, so ~15% versus the market's 1%.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 12.758537292480469
}