GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-1
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Big-Pickle |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-1", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 5, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.02 (2%). The market's 1¢ ask reflects a 1% base rate, but I add a bit for mispricing/fat tails around the date's close. Without knowing the exact resolution threshold I can't be more precise.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.02,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.02 (2%).\n\nThe market's 1\u00a2 ask reflects a 1% base rate, but I add a bit for mispricing/fat tails around the date's close. Without knowing the exact resolution threshold I can't be more precise.",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 24.491570949554443
}