GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-94
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Johnny Walker win the Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker UFC fight by Decision?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 5.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}