GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-93
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be between 6975 and 6999.9999 on Apr 15, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 5.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}