GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-8
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 57.0, "implied_p": 0.57} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-8", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will G2 Esports win the MIBR vs. G2 Esports Valorant match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 57.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, bet_size 0. Without any information edge over the market (which already prices YES at 57¢), my estimate converges to the market's, so expected value is roughly zero minus costs — no reason to bet.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size 0.\n\nWithout any information edge over the market (which already prices YES at 57\u00a2), my estimate converges to the market's, so expected value is roughly zero minus costs \u2014 no reason to bet.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 8.448623180389404
}