GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-8

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 60.0, "implied_p": 0.6}
score	{"id": "market-value-8", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Peterborough vs Port Vale Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 60.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

no_bet, bet_size 0.

Without any information edge over the market (which already prices YES at 57¢), my estimate converges to the market's, so expected value is roughly zero minus costs — no reason to bet.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": null,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size 0.\n\nWithout any information edge over the market (which already prices YES at 57\u00a2), my estimate converges to the market's, so expected value is roughly zero minus costs \u2014 no reason to bet.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 8.448623180389404
}