GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-6
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 34.0, "implied_p": 0.34} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-6", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.2424242424242424, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "New York Y wins by over 2.5 runs?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 34.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
My probability estimate: 34% (matching the market, since I have no private information that beats the 24h-old price). Expected value per share = 0.34 − 0.34 = 0, no edge. **Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0.0**
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.34,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability estimate: 34% (matching the market, since I have no private information that beats the 24h-old price). Expected value per share = 0.34 \u2212 0.34 = 0, no edge.\n\n**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0.0**",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.480722188949585
}