GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-6

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 36.0, "implied_p": 0.36}
score	{"id": "market-value-6", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.21875000000000003, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "Will the White House Press Secretary say Illegal Alien at her next press briefing?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 36.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

My probability estimate: 34% (matching the market, since I have no private information that beats the 24h-old price). Expected value per share = 0.34 − 0.34 = 0, no edge.

**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0.0**

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.34,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability estimate: 34% (matching the market, since I have no private information that beats the 24h-old price). Expected value per share = 0.34 \u2212 0.34 = 0, no edge.\n\n**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0.0**",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 10.480722188949585
}