GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-55
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 77.0, "implied_p": 0.77} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the gold close price be above 4792 USD/t.oz on Apr 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 77.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}