GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-5

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 37.0, "implied_p": 0.37}
score	{"id": "market-value-5", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": null, "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.20634920634920637, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Evil Geniuses Academy win the Evil Geniuses Academy vs. NRG Academy Valorant match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 37.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

no_bet, bet_size: 0.0

Without an edge over the market's 56¢ implied probability, betting is expected-negative (commission/spread), so I hold.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": null,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size: 0.0\n\nWithout an edge over the market's 56\u00a2 implied probability, betting is expected-negative (commission/spread), so I hold.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 13.83072280883789
}