GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-49
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-49", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.295774647887324, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Carolina wins by over 1.5 goals?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 29.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
No bet. I have no information advantage over the market — without specific game context (opponent, injuries, home/away), my best estimate is the market's own 29%, which implies zero expected value and no Kelly edge. Bet size: 0.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.29,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "No bet. I have no information advantage over the market \u2014 without specific game context (opponent, injuries, home/away), my best estimate is the market's own 29%, which implies zero expected value and no Kelly edge. Bet size: 0.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 8.899266719818115
}