GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-48
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-48", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.295774647887324, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Cerro Largo vs Cerro Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 29.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, bet_size: 0 Rationale: "Cerro Largo vs Cerro Winner?" is ambiguous about which team YES refers to, and I have no reliable edge — the 29¢ market price already reflects the aggregate probability (~29%). Without information that justifies a probability meaningfully above 29%, there's no positive expected value, and Kelly says to bet zero.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.29,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size: 0\n\nRationale: \"Cerro Largo vs Cerro Winner?\" is ambiguous about which team YES refers to, and I have no reliable edge \u2014 the 29\u00a2 market price already reflects the aggregate probability (~29%). Without information that justifies a probability meaningfully above 29%, there's no positi",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.503639936447144
}