GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-47
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 10.0, "implied_p": 0.1} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-47", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.4444444444444445, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Apr 11, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 10.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0.0** Rationale: The market price of 10¢ already reflects the collective probability estimate (~10%). I have no private information or edge over the market about Bitcoin's price range on Apr 11, 2026, so betting would be negative expected value after accounting for fees/slippage. Kelly sizing with p_true = 0.10 gives bet = 0.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.1,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0.0**\n\nRationale: The market price of 10\u00a2 already reflects the collective probability estimate (~10%). I have no private information or edge over the market about Bitcoin's price range on Apr 11, 2026, so betting would be negative expected value after accounting for fe",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.48620080947876
}