GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-42
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 33.0, "implied_p": 0.33} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-42", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.2537313432835821, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Donald Trump say during Roundtable on No Tax on Tips?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 33.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
Decision: **no_bet**, bet_size = **0**. I have no private information about Trump's remarks at this roundtable, so my probability estimate is ~33%, matching the market's aggregate price. With no edge over the market, betting has zero or negative expected value (market inefficiency + uncertainty), so the rational allocation is nothing.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.33,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Decision: **no_bet**, bet_size = **0**.\n\nI have no private information about Trump's remarks at this roundtable, so my probability estimate is ~33%, matching the market's aggregate price. With no edge over the market, betting has zero or negative expected value (market inefficiency + uncertainty), s",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.74178695678711
}