GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-41

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 34.0, "implied_p": 0.34}
score	{"id": "market-value-41", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.2424242424242424, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Colorado vs Houston first 5 innings winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 34.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

**no_bet**, bet_size = **0.0**

Without an information edge over the market, my estimate should equal the market's implied probability (p ≈ 0.22). Kelly fraction = (p − q)/(1 − q) = 0 when p = q, and the overround makes it slightly negative-EV in expectation. Only bet if I had genuine private information pushing p clearly above the price.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.22,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**no_bet**, bet_size = **0.0**\n\nWithout an information edge over the market, my estimate should equal the market's implied probability (p \u2248 0.22). Kelly fraction = (p \u2212 q)/(1 \u2212 q) = 0 when p = q, and the overround makes it slightly negative-EV in expectation. Only bet if I had genuine private inform",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 21.008966207504272
}