GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-37
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 11.0, "implied_p": 0.11} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-37", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.43820224719101125, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Shimane Susanoo Magic vs Alvark Tokyo Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 11.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
No bet. I have no information edge over the market here. The market already prices Shimane at ~11%; without private information or a reliable model suggesting the true probability deviates from that, the bet has no positive expected value (EV ≈ 0 before accounting for risk), so the rational choice is `no_bet` with `bet_size = 0`.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.11,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "No bet.\n\nI have no information edge over the market here. The market already prices Shimane at ~11%; without private information or a reliable model suggesting the true probability deviates from that, the bet has no positive expected value (EV \u2248 0 before accounting for risk), so the rational choice ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.435119867324829
}