GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-36
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 93.0, "implied_p": 0.93} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-36", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >98.99 on Apr 13, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 93.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**no_bet**, bet_size: 0 Reasoning: My own probability estimate for WTI settling above $98.99 on that date aligns closely with the market's implied ~93%, so buying YES at 93¢ offers roughly zero expected value (≈ 93¢ expected payoff on a 93¢ share). Without a genuine information edge over the market, there's no +EV bet to make.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.93,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**no_bet**, bet_size: 0\n\nReasoning: My own probability estimate for WTI settling above $98.99 on that date aligns closely with the market's implied ~93%, so buying YES at 93\u00a2 offers roughly zero expected value (\u2248 93\u00a2 expected payoff on a 93\u00a2 share). Without a genuine information edge over the market",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.002405881881714
}