GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-32
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 71.0, "implied_p": 0.71} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-32", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Team Liquid win the Team Liquid vs. Shopify Rebellion League of Legends match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 71.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: `no_bet`, bet_size = 0** Rationale: I have no informational edge over the market. My best probability estimate is the market-implied ~74%, so buying YES at 74¢ has ~zero expected value before costs. The spread/commission makes it net-negative. Betting only pays if your estimate diverges meaningfully from the market, and nothing in the prompt gives me that edge.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.74,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: `no_bet`, bet_size = 0**\n\nRationale: I have no informational edge over the market. My best probability estimate is the market-implied ~74%, so buying YES at 74\u00a2 has ~zero expected value before costs. The spread/commission makes it net-negative. Betting only pays if your estimate diverges",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 15.38420295715332
}