GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-31
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 12.0, "implied_p": 0.12} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-31", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.4318181818181818, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Houston wins by over 25.5 points?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 12.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
Probability estimate: ~12% (I have no edge over the market — a 12% price on "win by 26+" is internally consistent with Houston being roughly a 9.5-point favorite, and historical margin distributions match ~12%). Decision: **no_bet** Bet size: **0.00** (fraction of $1000 bankroll) Rationale: with fair value ≈ market price, expected value ≈ 0, and any perceived edge (~1%) is within noise after fees and 24h price drift.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.12,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Probability estimate: ~12% (I have no edge over the market \u2014 a 12% price on \"win by 26+\" is internally consistent with Houston being roughly a 9.5-point favorite, and historical margin distributions match ~12%).\n\nDecision: **no_bet**\nBet size: **0.00** (fraction of $1000 bankroll)\n\nRationale: with f",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 123.16423225402832
}