GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-30
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 61.0, "implied_p": 0.61} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-30", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Galions win the Galions vs. Esprit Shonen Valorant match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 61.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**no_bet, bet_size = 0.0** Without private information, my best estimate equals the market's: 61% chance of YES. Buying at 61 cents for a 61-cent fair value gives zero expected profit before transaction costs — no edge, so no bet. Betting purely because a price "looks cheap" is negative EV long-run.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.61,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**no_bet, bet_size = 0.0**\n\nWithout private information, my best estimate equals the market's: 61% chance of YES. Buying at 61 cents for a 61-cent fair value gives zero expected profit before transaction costs \u2014 no edge, so no bet. Betting purely because a price \"looks cheap\" is negative EV long-run",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.921743154525757
}