GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-26

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 53.0, "implied_p": 0.53}
score	{"id": "market-value-26", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will FlyQuest win map 1 in the FlyQuest vs. Disguised match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 53.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

**Decision: no_bet**
**bet_size: 0**

Rationale: The market priced YES at 12¢ (implied ~12%) and I have no information edge over the market — no data on either team, injuries, or new developments. With no reason to believe my estimate beats the market, any bet has non-positive expected value.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.12,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet**\n**bet_size: 0**\n\nRationale: The market priced YES at 12\u00a2 (implied ~12%) and I have no information edge over the market \u2014 no data on either team, injuries, or new developments. With no reason to believe my estimate beats the market, any bet has non-positive expected value.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 8.969541788101196
}