GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-26
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 12.0, "implied_p": 0.12} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-26", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.4318181818181818, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Springfield Thunderbirds vs Hartford Wolf Pack Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 12.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet** **bet_size: 0** Rationale: The market priced YES at 12¢ (implied ~12%) and I have no information edge over the market — no data on either team, injuries, or new developments. With no reason to believe my estimate beats the market, any bet has non-positive expected value.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.12,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet**\n**bet_size: 0**\n\nRationale: The market priced YES at 12\u00a2 (implied ~12%) and I have no information edge over the market \u2014 no data on either team, injuries, or new developments. With no reason to believe my estimate beats the market, any bet has non-positive expected value.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 8.969541788101196
}