GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-25
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 35.0, "implied_p": 0.35} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-25", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.23076923076923078, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will the announcers say during Dominick Reyes vs Johnny Walker UFC Fight?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 35.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0** I have no reliable edge here — I lack a defensible probability estimate for an obscure, subjective market like "what announcers will say during a specific UFC fight," and the market's 35¢ price already aggregates information I don't have. Without a genuine informational advantage, betting has negative expected value (fees/spread + selection of a question where my estimate would just be noise). The rational play is to pass.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet, bet_size = 0**\n\nI have no reliable edge here \u2014 I lack a defensible probability estimate for an obscure, subjective market like \"what announcers will say during a specific UFC fight,\" and the market's 35\u00a2 price already aggregates information I don't have. Without a genuine informa",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.266912937164307
}