GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-24
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 30.0, "implied_p": 0.3} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-24", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.28571428571428575, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Ind. Medellin vs Atletico Nacional Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 30.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
No bet. Without information beyond the market price, my estimate is indistinguishable from the market's 30% (Kelly stake on zero edge is 0). Betting would be negative-EV once the market's spread is considered. - bet: `no_bet` - bet_size: `0.00`
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "No bet.\n\nWithout information beyond the market price, my estimate is indistinguishable from the market's 30% (Kelly stake on zero edge is 0). Betting would be negative-EV once the market's spread is considered.\n\n- bet: `no_bet`\n- bet_size: `0.00`",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.848984241485596
}