GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-21
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 50.0, "implied_p": 0.5} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-21", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Jiri Prochazka win the Prochazka vs Ulberg professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 11, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 50.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet** | **bet_size: 0** Rationale: At 39¢, the market implies P(YES) ≈ 0.39. I have no independent edge on Trujillanos vs Est. Merida (a Venezuelan football match I have no reliable model for), so my best estimate is p ≈ 0.39. With EV = p − price = 0, Kelly staking collapses to f* = 0. No positive-EV bet exists without a probability estimate above 0.39.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.39,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet** | **bet_size: 0**\n\nRationale: At 39\u00a2, the market implies P(YES) \u2248 0.39. I have no independent edge on Trujillanos vs Est. Merida (a Venezuelan football match I have no reliable model for), so my best estimate is p \u2248 0.39. With EV = p \u2212 price = 0, Kelly staking collapses to f* = ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 17.28393292427063
}