GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-2
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 35.0, "implied_p": 0.35} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.23076923076923078, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Orlando Storm vs Louisville Kings winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 35.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
No bet. Rationale: without a private information edge, the 35c price already reflects the market's consensus. Betting without an edge has expected value ≤ 0 (you'd be buying at the ask, ~35c, against a midpoint near 34-35c). No real-world data supports a superior estimate for this matchup, so there's no positive-EV opportunity. decision: `no_bet`, bet_size: `0`.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "No bet.\n\nRationale: without a private information edge, the 35c price already reflects the market's consensus. Betting without an edge has expected value \u2264 0 (you'd be buying at the ask, ~35c, against a midpoint near 34-35c). No real-world data supports a superior estimate for this matchup, so there",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.518150329589844
}