GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-2
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 49.0, "implied_p": 0.49} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.01960784313725492, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Randy Brown win the Holland vs Brown professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 11, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 49.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
No bet. Rationale: without a private information edge, the 35c price already reflects the market's consensus. Betting without an edge has expected value ≤ 0 (you'd be buying at the ask, ~35c, against a midpoint near 34-35c). No real-world data supports a superior estimate for this matchup, so there's no positive-EV opportunity. decision: `no_bet`, bet_size: `0`.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "No bet.\n\nRationale: without a private information edge, the 35c price already reflects the market's consensus. Betting without an edge has expected value \u2264 0 (you'd be buying at the ask, ~35c, against a midpoint near 34-35c). No real-world data supports a superior estimate for this matchup, so there",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.518150329589844
}